Tools for making sense of things: Hypothesis

hypothesis Noun a proposal intended to explain certain facts or observations

Various tools have been explored that can be used to make sense of the universe we live in. They have been presented in a simplistic way and things are, of course, much more complicated in reality. The purpose of highlighting each tool is to lay the foundation of a process that has consistently arrived at conclusions that are correct and have helped to explain the world we all live in today.

These tools are used in the process known as the scientific method. This method works. It's the only method that has constantly enabled humans to discern what is real from what has been imagined. Before wrapping things up with an overview of the scientific method, we must first conclude the story of our furry protagonist with a hypothesis. Let's recap the claims made so far.

Photo taken by Kathy on Flickr (no affiliation to this blog)

I'm a giant rabid squirrel sat on an unstable vibrating tricycle zooming past York cathedral. Flecks of froth that have foamed around my lips are violently thrown into crowds of startled people watching in confused horror. My exaggerated tooth-filled grin shakes due to the quivering springs on the antiquated seat. I see a nut and I'm hungry.


As I ride the bike my tail becomes caked in mud thrown up from the street. The people who notice me fix their eyes in my direction. Some are running along beside me. Others peer out from second floor windows. All are staring in disbelief. This knowledge is only partially present in my mind as my eyes fixate on a single nut under my favourite tree.


But the nut is so far away and the bicycle is so hard to ride. I'm much better at climbing trees and administering the storing and categorisation of food. Back home there is more than enough to snack on but I know more food will be needed eventually. The people gathering around me aren't helping with my goal.


I must stop thinking of those watching me. The ground is hilly and the nut somehow seems further away. I imagine it's only a leap away on the branch of my tree; perfect freedom up high while watching the world follow its routine below. But I'm not in my tree, I'm on a bike and my paws find the peddles difficult to control.

There are three main points that I will use to claim this is simply a story.

1. The text is written from the perspective of a squirrel. When observed, we find that squirrels do not have an understanding of the English language and cannot write. We do not have the capability to know the mind of a squirrel. Therefore, the text was not written by a squirrel and was most likely written by a human.

2. Squirrels have been observed in their thousands, but none are able to grow to giant size that would enable them to ride a bicycle.

3. No date is given but bicycles were first available around 1818 so the tricycle could not be earlier than that. Looking at photos of York cathedral from around this time we see that the area is flat and paved with concrete. The only trees in the area are part of the Minster Garden which is also flat. This highlights inconstancies with regards to the location described in the text.

From the Red Book Of York taken before 1901

The purpose of such an obviously fantastical story is to discover why it is so obviously fantastical. By going through the process of separating what is real from imagined we find that the text in red is probably imagined.

We can use these tools throughout life to determine the validity of a claim. Some claims use scientific sounding vocabulary, but upon examination (especially by a scientist specialising in that particular field) the text can be seen to be in the realm of imagination. There are others that focus on distorting the logic in order to allow for fantastical events. Others simply dive into the realm of belief and argue that they are offended if the claims are scrutinised.

Of course, a hypothesis can be scrutinised and proved wrong by the tools contained within the scientific method. But the techniques briefly mentioned above break these rules. The act of breaking the rules to support a conclusion is unscientific and can bring us to the wrong conclusion.

Tools for making sense of things: Experimentation

experimentation Noun the act of conducting a controlled test or investigation

I must stop thinking of those watching me. The ground is hilly and the nut somehow seems further away. I imagine it's only a leap away on the branch of my tree; perfect freedom up high while watching the world follow its routine below. But I'm not in my tree, I'm on a bike and my paws find the peddles difficult to control.

Experimentation is something human beings can do without much thought. It is built into our natural learning process from a young age.

A child's toy that consists of coloured shapes made of wood, and corresponding silhouettes of these shapes cut into a wooden box is an experiment in disguise. The purpose of this experiment is to answer questions such as how matter interacts, how shapes can be manipulated in three dimensions, how gravity pulls things towards the earth, and so on.

Such a simple experiment allows the child to discover many things. When the experiment has been executed, discoveries are made such as wood cannot pass through other matter, that each shape will fit into a hole if it is rotated to the correct orientation, and that gravity will do the work of pulling the block into the bottom of the box once grip has been lost on the shape.

But as the child makes these discoveries, new questions are asked. Why doesn’t matter pass through matter? What is wood made of? Why does the paint stick to it? How does gravity work? The experiment creates more questions than answers.

Putting future experiments aside, the information collected by the child constructs an invaluable understanding of how the environment they live in works. For a parent interested in teaching the child how to make more discoveries, it’s a good start to a scientific education.

The experiments adult humans run today have advanced beyond all recognition. At the time of writing, a $1.5 billion particle detector is planned to be attached to the side of the International Space Station to search for evidence of parallel universes that are composed of anti-matter, among other things. This experiment is expected to create more questions than answers.

AMS-02 - a particle detector for the ISS. Image Credit: NASA

Experimentation provides a solid premise for our logic. We term this as 'evidence' and by using it we base our understanding of the universe.

When revisiting our alleged story with the squirrel trying to collect a nut on a bike, many experiments can be designed to determine the plausibility of this event. Using the tools presented so far we can build a hypothesis to investigate these furry claims.

Tools for making sense of things: Observation

observation Noun the act of making and recording a measurement

But the nut is so far away and the bicycle is so hard to ride. I'm much better at climbing trees and administering the storing and categorisation of food. Back home there is more than enough to snack on but I know more food will be needed eventually. The people gathering around me aren't helping with my goal.

In modern times our ability to observe the universe is profound. Ideas that were once offered to explain what we could observe with our eyes are, by today's standard, absurd.

Flammarion engraving

The wood engraving shows a medieval understanding of our universe. The Earth is flat, the sun orbits around it, stars are a veil stretched over the sky, and the heavens are just beyond that. The man in the robe has found where Earth touches heaven and is shown peering into it.

At the time, these explanations were not an unreasonable account of how things work. The reasoning and logic were both sound.

1. All the land on Earth is flat.
2. We live on this Earth.
3. Therefore the Earth is flat.

1. The stars in the sky are unmoving.
2. Each fixed position in the sky is observed by us on the ground.
3. Therefore the sky is a veil that shrouds the Earth.

The error here is with the premise. Each observation is incorrect which invalidates the preceding logic. With better tools we discover that the land on Earth is curved, and that the stars are not unmoving.

During the time when it was believed that the Earth was flat and the stars were part of a veil, further complex ideas were constructed on top of this foundation. Unfortunately all of this was to be invalidated once we discovered the premise was incorrect. A lot of work had to be redone.

Looking back at the example of the squirrel riding a bicycle to collect nuts, we discover the greatest indicator that this event is born from the imagination. It appears to be a story with no collected observations. No pictures, no records of the height or colour of the animal, no information of the type of bicycle involved, no collaborating account of events from other sources. There is one observation made on location but this is a weak premise to base our logic on. This appears to be a story, or at best a witness account of an extraordinary event.

Through accurate and repeatable observation we can establish the foundation of which to base our logic. Once this is in place we can test our work through experimentation.

Tools for making sense of things: Logic

logic Noun the principles that guide reasoning within a given field or situation

"economic logic requires it"; "by the logic of war"

As I ride the bike my tail becomes caked in mud thrown up from the street. The people who notice me fix their eyes in my direction. Some are running along beside me. Others peer out from second floor windows. All are staring in disbelief. This knowledge is only partially present in my mind as my eyes fixate on a single nut under my favourite tree.

Reason alone doesn't help discern reality from an active human mind. In order to identify imagination taking precedent over reality we need to apply cognitive tools that are better refined.

Logic is a wonderful tool that can be used in many ways. We use it in an absolute sense in computing. Every chip manufactured contains a complicated city of logic gates. Each connected district is able to transport electrons from one calculation to another to arrive at an answer. If the logic is incorrect the machine simply doesn't work.

This brings us to the ultimate goal of logic. Using the same set of data, if solid logic is applied we should arrive at the same outcome. If different outcomes are arrived, the logic can be examined for faults along the way.

The process of logical thought is based on a premise. For example:

1. A squirrel is unable to operate a bicycle.

2. The character mentioned in the opening paragraph is a squirrel.

3. The character is unable to operate a bicycle.

Identifying faults in logic are known as logical fallacies. These are simply premisses that cannot be sustained. For example:

1. We don't know all squirrels are unable to operate a bicycle.

2. The character mentioned in the opening paragraph is a squirrel.

3. The character could be operating a bicycle.

This is an argument from ignorance and is a logical fallacy. We must base a premise on what can be observed. We do not observe squirrels riding bicycles and cannot assume that somewhere, a squirrel might be riding one. Until the event is observed we cannot use our imagination to fill in the gaps.

But where does a premise come from? How do we know squirrels can't operate bicycles? For that we must look at observation.

Tools for making sense of things: Reason

reason Noun a fact that logically justifies some premise or conclusion

"there is reason to believe he is lying"

I'm a giant rabid squirrel sat on an unstable vibrating tricycle zooming past York cathedral. Flecks of froth that have foamed around my lips are violently thrown into crowds of startled people watching in confused horror. My exaggerated tooth-filled grin shakes due to the quivering springs on the antiquated seat. I see a nut and I'm hungry.

The previous paragraph is quite obviously absurd. Its power to convince you of truth is lacking (to put it mildly). It's past the point of reality, beyond reason.

But why is it?

The word "reason" is a complicated noun. It means many things in contemporary English, and means even more when considered in the context I'm using it. To distill it down to its base parts, the word simply describes an event of formulaic cognition.

But this doesn't mean it has to make any sense.

For example, in twenty seconds I could run up to a cake, lick the icing, shout "I'm a barbarian" and then throw it at a cat. The reasons I could give for such a series of actions is that a tongue is the connecting bridge to life, barbarians are the only true free individuals that have ever existed, and that cats are natural oppressors.

These are certainly reasons. But they're useless on their own as they can lead to committing a string of arbitrary events. Not only are the potential results bizarre, but they're typically not reproducible in another mind. Lack of consistency is an issue or else things regress into a chaotic mess where terms are self-defined and the same reality is given hundreds of thousand of explanations that are equally bizarre and contradictory. In this word the giant squirrel is permissible. We need to narrow the playing field and identify a type of reasoning to discover what is real.

And this is why reason needs to be guided. For that, we need to explore logic.